5月18日上午9时，以“发展新经济 培育新动能”为主题的2018成都全球创新创业交易会正式开幕。开幕式上，财新数联首席经济学家陈沁以“新经济指数发布两周年观察——宏观背景变动下的再出发”为题展开解读。

会议要闻

万事达卡

电话：+86-28-65290823

2017年6月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平比上月略有下降，为每月8975元，上月为9115元（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。

关于财新

从本月开始，新经济指数报告将加入人口流动这一重要数据。本月我们将首先加入全国205个机场的人口流量数据，并对人口流动态势进行简要分析。

Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.

BBD（数联铭品）

NEI资本指标包含四项二级指标，即风险投资占比、招标占比、申请新三板企业注册资本占比和新增企业注册资本占比。2月风险投资占比大幅上升，贡献了当月NEI的主要环比增幅。

电邮：

Tel：+86-28-65290823

About Caixin

一、指数概览

2016年12月，万事达卡财新BBD中国的新经济指数（NEI）为32.5，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为32.5%。该值较11月的30.4上升2.1个百分点，达到了新经济指数发布以来的最高水平（图1）。NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见第二部分和《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》。

二、主要分项指标

NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。12月NEI的上升主要来自资本投入的上升。资本投入指数在近半年中的波动较大，在经过上个月的下跌后，本月上升至38.8，达到了NEI发布以来的最高值（图2）。劳动力投入指数从下跌至26.0，上月为27.8，延续了从今年3月以来的下跌趋势，已经达到了新经济指数公布以来的最低值。科技投入指数有所上升，本月为34.1。

劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为-0.8，2.4，和0.5个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对12月NEI变化的绝对贡献值为2.1（图3）。

分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，12月为总指数贡献了13.5个百分点，比11月略有下降，但仍然达到了今年2月以来的次高水平。高端装备制造业的贡献排名第二，本月贡献5个百分点，生物医药产业排名第三，贡献3.8个百分点（图4）。

三、新经济就业

12月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例进一步下降，为24.9%，新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重从29.1%略降为27.0%。新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平继续上升，12月新经济入职工资 “溢价”为8.2%（图6）。

四、劳动力需求形式

从2016年9月起，新经济指数开始持续挖掘大数据中隐含的一些领先指标。本月我们对2016年的劳动力需求情况进行一系列总结。图7为中大型城市新入职员工平均工资在一年中的增长率（为了避免奇异值，我们使用2016年第四季度平均值除以2015年第四季度平均值），结果显示，中西部欠发达省的省会占据了新入职员工工资上涨最快的十大城市中的六席，而新入职员工工资上涨最慢的十大城市则几乎全部是东部沿海城市与东北地区。这与2016年以来东部发达地区产业进一步向中西部转移的现象相吻合。

不同教育程度的新入职员工工资上涨程度如图9所示。我们将招聘广告中的最低学历要求作为划分标准，观察不同技能需求的岗位的新入职员工工资变化。结果发现，高中及以下、大专、本科和硕士及以上这四层技能需求的岗位工资比例约为1:1.1:1.6:2，从大专到本科，从本科到研究生。纵向上看，2016年新入职员工工资上涨最快的是硕士及以上教育程度需求的岗位，上升了6.8%，其次是高中及以下教育程度需求的岗位，上升了5.2%。大专和本科需求的岗位分别上升了1%和4.6%。从中我们可以发现，随着低技能劳动力的供给萎缩和高技能岗位的需求扩张，高技能和低技能岗位的工资上涨较快。相比之下，中等技能需求的岗位工资上涨较慢。

五、城市新经济排名

2016年12月新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示，上海、北京、深圳、重庆与广州排名前五，该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。

In an effort to increase transparency on the structural changes underway in China’s economy, the MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index (NEI) was established. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publicly released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

In December 2016, the MasterCard Caixin-BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 32.5, indicating that the New Economy inputs accounted for 32.5% of overall economic input activities that month. This reading recorded a 210 basis point increase from November, reaching a new high since the release of the NEI (Chart 1).

The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weight of the index, respectively. Among the primary inputs, the increase in the December NEI reading came primarily from a rise in capital investment. In 2H16, capital investment has fluctuated greatly, with a substantial increase to 38.8 in December after a 31.9 reading in November, a high on the year (Chart 2). The labor input index fell to 26.0, down from 27.8 last month, continuing a declining trend since March and marks the lowest reading since the NEI has been released. The technology input reading increased to 34.1.

Percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.9, 2.4 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively. After accounting for the sum of their weightings, the net result for the NEI was a 2.1 pp increase in December from November figures (Chart 3).

Lookingat the sub-sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of theNew Economy Index, contributing 13.8 pp to NEI, the highest figure sinceFebruary. Finance & Legal Services remained at second, contributing 6.1percentage points. The third largest contributor was biotech with 3.8 pp (Chart4).

In December 2016, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 8,360 per month, a drop from November figures (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands.

Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 24.9% of total hiring in December, continuing the decline from previous months. The compensation share of New Economy sectors declined again, from 29.1% to 27.0%. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 8.2% as compared to economy-wide counterparts (Chart 6).

From September onwards, we have used new data sources to examine several leading indicators in labor demand. This month, we have provided a series of summaries regarding labor demand in 2016. Chart 7 indicates the average annual growth rate for wages of new recruits in medium to large sized cities. We applied 4Q16 average figures divided by 4Q15 average to provide the growth rate. The conclusion is that central and western regions occupied 6 of the top 10 cities with the largest growth rates among salaries for new recruits. Meanwhile, the bottom 10 cities with the slowest salary increases are all concentrated in coastal and northeastern cities. This is consistent with a trend of industry and production moving to central and western regions in 2016.

In Chart 8, we show the salary increases for new recruits in specific industries. We select the 30 largest industries on the basis of highest new recruits and listed the top 10 industries with the fastest wage growth and the top 10 industries with the slowest wage growth. The Internet & IT Service industries, booming since around 2010, have observed the highest wage drop in 2016, and even the level of salaries has declined. Meanwhile, e-commerce related logistics also experienced wage stagnation. At the same time, wage levels have increased rapidly in the retail, consumer durable goods, and medical industry. It is noteworthy that wage growth rates have varied significantly in central & western cities as compared to eastern cities. In central & western cities, IT services and logistics services have seen particularly large wage growth rates while eastern cities have seen wages decline in those same industries.

We highlight the education level of new hires to show the extent of entry-level salary changes (Chart 9). To observe salary changes of new hires based on education level, we analyzed the minimum academic requirement in job advertisements. Pay scale of the four education categories - high school education and below, junior college education, college education and postgraduate education. With high school education as a base, junior college was 1.1, college graduate was 1.6, and postgraduate was 2.0.

In terms of 2016 new hire wage growth, those with postgraduate education have seen the largest salary growth at 6.8% Y/Y. High School and below saw growth of 5.2% while jobs requiring college and undergraduate education have seen increases of 1.0% and 4.6%, respectively. From this, we can see that with low-skilled labor supply shrinking and high-skilled labor demand increasing, high-skilled and low-skilled wage increases have surpassed those mid-skill labor forces.

Basedon overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities are shown in Chart 10.The top five cities are Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chongqing and Guangzhou. Therankings are based on a moving average of the percentile rank of indicators forthe city in the past 6 months.

When looking at the city NEI rankings based on average NEI from June to December of 2016, the top five are Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou (Chart 11).

The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

上一篇：大熊猫香烟(大熊猫香烟价格)

下一篇：000611(000611股票)